Prediction of the gross domestic product based on the standard and specific determinants of the economic growth
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2014.2(128).24580Keywords:
economic growth, development, innovation progress, the economic crisis, stagnationAbstract
The article is devoted to find the most important influences on the dynamics of the GDP in the global financial crisis and economic stagnation in Ukraine. It was determined that the greatest impacts on the amount of changes in Ukraine's GDP are the dynamics factors of the gross external debt of Ukraine and the volume of the industrial metallurgy products. The factor of the growth of foreign direct investments in the economy of Ukraine is situated on the third place. The following factors are the indicators of average wages and investments in fixed assets. Factors such as length of paved roads, the number of industrial enterprises and the total number of businesses don't have the big impact on the growth of GDP. The analysis of paces and quality of the economic growth in Ukraine demonstrates the inadequacy of policy realities of the present.
This work has an idea of the opportunity of developing the national economy on the basis of continuous innovation progress and effective debt management. It is believed that an effective public debt management should be based only on two principles: the first one is that economic growth can be observed only when the growth of revenues will exceed the increase of the costs of servicing loans; the second principle is that the accumulation of public debt will remain in the resistant limits only if the real rate of economic growth becomes higher than the real rates of the interest on the debt payments of the government. The modernization of the national economy on the path of the innovation changes have to include a waiver of extensive type of the model and the transition to a new economic development strategy designed to match the interests of all subjects of society
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