The choice of the optimal managerial decisions method improvement during implementation of the innovation and investment activity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2013.2(122).13455Keywords:
інноваційно-інвестиційна діяльність, оптимальні управлінські рішення, ринкова кон'юнктура, мінімальний ризик, максимальний ефектAbstract
The methodological approach to the choice of the optimal managerial decisions in the innovation and investment activity has been improved.
It is proved that the development of the methodological approach to the choice of the optimal managerial decisions during implementation of the innovation and investment activity by economic entity in the uncertain external environment is necessary for the innovation and investment activity management optimization.
The general pattern of choice of the effective decision-making in the conditions of uncertainty consists of implementation of the following main stages:
1. The external environment analysis. The need for the external environment analysis making is the essential condition in case of making choice of the best of the available strategical alternatives of the innovation and investment activity implementation.
2. The branch analysis. The need for the branch analysis making is determined by the need to define the effect in the interaction of the following factors: consumers; suppliers; competitive enterprises; products; prices; market entry and exit of new enterprises etc.
3. The effective implementation of the innovation and investment projects depends on the level of competition in the branch. If the level of competition in the branch is high, this fact will cause consistently the expected incomes reduction. That is why it is expedient to make the competition analysis in the branch.
The implementation of the considered main stages of the analysis of the external environment of the enterprise, the branch, the competitive environment of the enterprise allows the managers of the enterprise to make the effective managerial decisions on choice of the strategical alternatives of the innovation and investment activity implementation according to the current market situation.
The payoff array method has become of common use for the determination of the choice of the most effective of the existent alternatives in the management practice. It is expedient to take m = 2 value in order to improve the considered methodological approach because only the sales volume rate effects the choice of optimal decision in the best and in the worst situation for the machinery production under the uniform dependence of the payoff array elements on the state of the external environment. This fact will cause the significant reduction of the scope of work on the payoff array generation. An added bonus of the suggested approach is the fact that according to Wald criterion the optimal decision always corresponds to the decision which gives the best result under the worst external environment state.
The use of the suggested improved methodological approach to the analysis and optimal decision-making at the enterprise allows during the innovation and investment activity implementation to determine the existent problems and possible ones in future (major problems) under the external environment effect and to make search for possibilities, to forecast the economic state of the innovation and investment projects under the various market conditions and to develop the effective managerial decisions.
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