Public debt security of Ukraine: estimation, risks and perspectives

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2017.3(149).108103

Keywords:

public debt, sovereign debt, debt risks, public debt security

Abstract

The article deals with the public debt security in accordance with the realities of fiscal policy in Ukraine. There were identified the main disadvantages of the Ukrainian public debt risk assessment system. There was investigated world experience the debt security estimation indicators. Recently the debt security estimation in the conditions of financial and economic stagnation shows the rapid growth of debt burden, its indicators exceeded the maximum allowable parameters, primarily, due to externalities under the influence of budgetary and currency risksexacerbation. There were offered the main direction of improving the debtmanagement in Ukraine, in particular, to extend and legislate debt security indicators; to develop a unified methodology for assessing debt risk by systematizing a list of debt risk indicators for weighting coefficients, a ball scale, such as a "temperature matrix"; to use indicators of elasticity in calculating the level of debt security, debt risks; to develop а unified methodology for evaluating and implementing a medium- and long-term risk strategy for managing sovereign debt with the targeting of financial and debt sustainability determinants and the possible to use the model of "financial suppression".

Author Biographies

Hanna Kotina, Kyiv National Economic University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of Finance

Maryna Stepura, Kyiv National Economic University

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of Finance

Pavlo Kondro

Master of Finance and Credit

References

Order of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine «On Approval of Methodological Recommendations for Calculation of the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine» 10. 29, 2013, No. 12777, available at: http://cct.com.ua/2013/29.10.2013_1277.htm

Efimenko, T.I. & Yerokhin, S.A. & Bogdan, T.P. & Bazas, M.F. & Bashko, V.Y. etc. (2014), Debt stability of public finance, State Educational sciences Institution «Academy of Financial Sector Management». 710 p. Available at: https://afu.minfin.gov.ua/getfile.php?page_id=449&num=1

Bench, L.Ya. (2016), Debt Instruments for State Expenditures Financing: Theory and Practice, Finance, Accounting and Audit, Vol. 1, KNEU Press, pp. 35-47 (ukr).

Bogdan, T.G. (2012), Debt Security and Its Role in Guaranteeing Financial Stability, Visnyk NBU, April 2012, pp. 8-15, available at: http://www.nbuv.gov.ua/old_jrn/soc_gum/Vnbu/2012_4/2012_04_2.pdf

Vlasyuk, O. S. & Shemaeva, L. & Londar, L. (2016), Sustainability of debts as a strategic direction for raising the level of financial security, NISS Press, Kyiv, 50 p., available at: http://www.niss.gov.ua/content/articles/files/borg-1fd6c.pdf.

Chui, I. R. & Mitsak, O. (2016), Methodological Approaches to Assessing Debt Security, Scientific Bulletin of NLTU of Ukraine. Vol. 26.6, pp. 225-231, available at: http://nltu.edu.ua/nv/Archive/2016/26_6/36.pdf

IMF: Staff guidance note for public debt sustainability analysis in market-access countries, available at: http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/050913.pdf.

Ratings of States. Ukraine- credit ratings, Official web-portal Tradings Economics, available at: http://ru.tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/rating

Statistical data. Consolidated national accounts in 2011-2016, Official site of the State Statistics Service, available at: http://ukrstat.gov.ua/

Statistical materials on state of the state debt in 2011-2016, Official site of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, available at: http://www.minfin.gov.ua/news/borg/statistichna-informacija-schodo-borgu?icon=5

Financial market statistics. Indicators of currency and financial markets, Official site of the National Bank of Ukraine: https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/allinfo

Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina and Philipp Rother (2013), Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, pp. 809 - 821. DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.07.004.

Brauninger, Michael (2005), The Budget Deficit, Public Debt, and Endogenous Growth, Journal of Public Economic Theory, Vol. 7, No. 5, p. 827-840. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9779.2005.00247.x

Diamond, Peter A. (1965), National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model, American Economic Review, Vol. 55, No. 5, pp. 1126-1150.

Fischer, Stanley(1991), Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development, in Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fischer eds. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 6, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 329-379. DOI: /10.1086/654175

Futagami, Koichi & Takeo Hori, and Ryoji Ohdoi (2010), Debt Policy and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy Model with Productive Government Spending, ADBI Working Papers 212, Asian Development Bank Institute.

Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2012), Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 69-86.

Ülgentürk, L. (2017), The role of public debt managers in contingent liability management, OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management, No. 8, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at: DOI: 10.1787/93469058-en

Published

2017-08-06

How to Cite

Kotina, H., Stepura, M., & Kondro, P. (2017). Public debt security of Ukraine: estimation, risks and perspectives. Skhid, (3(149), 10–15. https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2017.3(149).108103

Issue

Section

Economy